Wisconsin is a key state in 2020. It is a must-win for both campaigns. The stakes couldn’t be higher. The midterms were a mixed bag.
The Democrats won more than they lost but the margins were razor-thin in a blue wave year. In other words, unlike when Hillary skipped the state, Wisconsin will be fought over.
While polling is far from perfect, they all tell the same basic story – the race is too close to call and public opinion among the swing voters switches frequently.
The fear for the Democrats was that impeachment, doomed to fail in the Senate anyway, would help not hurt Trump.
According to a new poll that is exactly what is happening. Trump has been trailing the top Dems in one fairly reliable poll. Within the margin of error usually, but that has changed after public impeachment hearings. From The Washington Examiner:
If I am a Democratic strategist, I am at least a little bit worried about the new Marquette Law School survey showing President Trump winning Wisconsin in hypothetical match-ups against top-tier 2020 Democratic primary candidates.
I would be worried not just because the survey marks the first time this year that a serious and credible polling group has released data showing Trump beating 2020 front-runner Joe Biden for what National Review’s John McCormack rightly calls a “potentially decisive” state. I would be worried also that the survey shows a gradual decline for the 2020 Democrats in theoretical match-ups against the president.
I would be especially worried about the fact that the new poll shows Trump’s reelection numbers improving even amid the House’s impeachment investigation into his attempts to pressure Ukraine into investigating Biden.
The Marquette Law survey, which was conducted between Nov. 13 and 17 and surveyed 801 registered Wisconsin voters, shows Trump defeating Biden (47 to 44), Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (48 to 45) and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (48 to 43), and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (47 to 39).
Now, compare this to Marquette Law’s earlier surveys of Wisconsin. In October, the group’s numbers looked like this:
Biden 50, Trump 44.
Sanders 48, Trump 46.
Warren 47, Trump 46.
Buttigieg 43, Trump 45.
And in August, its numbers looked like this:
Biden 51, Trump 42.
Sanders 48, Trump 44.
Warren 45, Trump 45.