Home News “The Economist” Forecast Model Gives Trump only a 5% Chance of Beating Biden

“The Economist” Forecast Model Gives Trump only a 5% Chance of Beating Biden

by Paul Goldberg

The current forecast model of “The Economist” gives President Trump a scant 5% chance of defeating Joe Biden.

According to the publication “The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020.”

"The Economist" Forecast Model Gives Trump only a 5% Chance of Beating Biden

The model sees Biden with well over 300 electoral votes and Trump under 200.

"The Economist" Forecast Model Gives Trump only a 5% Chance of Beating Biden

From a state by state perspective the Economist at time of publication gives:

Biden a 96% chance to win Michigan.

Biden a 95% chance to win Wisconsin.

Biden a 92% chance to win Pennsylvania.

Biden a 77% chance to win Florida.

Biden a 73% chance of winning North Carolina.

Biden a 69% chance of winning Arizona.

Betting Odds give Trump a much higher chance of victory, likely due to the fact most models incorrectly predicted a Hillary victory in 2016.

"The Economist" Forecast Model Gives Trump only a 5% Chance of Beating Biden

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