Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University was one of the few that correctly predicted President Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
In fact, he claims his model predicts correctly 25 of the last 27 contests correctly, the only 2 exceptions being Kennedy defeating Nixon in 1960 and Bush defeating Gore in 2000.
Norpoth even gave a Ted Talk on “How to Predict Elections” in 2016 after the election.
This year, Norpoth gives Trump a 90% chance of defeating Joe Biden.
Norpoth says his model uses primary results over polling.
He explains “It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests and the votes are counted and tabulated. I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll.”
“Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win,” Norpoth said.
“It seems crazy. But it’s not,” He added.
Ted Talk from 2016: